So it's only speculation for now. It would be best if people prepared themselves for the option they don't wish to see, but for reasons you mentioned it seems unlikely.

[he kind of wants to leave it at that - this isnt the first time theyve talked about this and he doesn't want to waste time going in circles

BUT]

Ignorance would be an interesting case, I think. One would have to wonder if they'd willfully been ignorant after all those years.